The Federal Government has welcomed the decision by Fitch Ratings on October 9, 2026 to revise the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable, while affirming the ratings at ‘B’.
Fitch said the action reflects ongoing reform of Nigeria’s policy framework and its increased confidence that reform momentum will be sustained.
The organisation attributed the improved outlook to greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.
Gross reserves stood at USD54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, up from USD32 billion in mid-April 2024, supported by increased formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, and higher export receipts and remittances.
The agency noted that improved reserve quality has strengthened Nigeria’s resilience to external shocks, and it projects a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026.
Fitch also pointed to improving performance in the real economy. It forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025, and expects growth to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028, led by non-oil activity. Crude oil production has met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while the ramp-up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and demand for foreign exchange. Average inflation is forecast to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On public finances and the financial sector, Fitch said it expects tax reforms to lift non-oil revenue to GDP ratio. It projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP over 2026 to 2028, well below the ‘B’ median of 56 per cent.
The agency also recognised Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and the bank recapitalisation exercise, with many banks at capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent, well above regulatory minimums.
With this action, all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ in May, and Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August. Separately, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026. Taken together, these decisions reflect a converging and increasingly favourable assessment of Nigeria’s reform trajectory.
The Minister of Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, noted that a Positive Outlook signals that the rating could be raised if current trends are sustained.
He said Fitch’s Positive Outlook further validates the difficult but necessary reforms implemented under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate and the landmark tax reforms. Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade.
“We are committed to this work, not for the rating itself, but because these reforms will lower Nigeria’s cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create decent jobs at scale,” he said.
The Government also takes note of the areas where Fitch sees room for further progress. Inflation, although falling, remains above that of peer countries; government revenue is still low relative to the size of the economy; and interest costs absorb a high share of that revenue. These are the constraints the Government’s reform programme is designed to address.
𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭’𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬
– The Government reaffirms its commitment to the priorities that underpin Nigeria’s improving credit profile, including:
– Sustaining reform momentum and a disciplined, market-reflective and transparent foreign exchange regime;
– Raising revenue through full implementation of the new tax laws and efficient tax administration;
– Improving fiscal governance through spending efficiency, budget execution and transparent debt management;
– Advancing structural reforms that support non-oil growth and economic diversification; and
– Accelerating conversion of macroeconomic stability into shared prosperity through food security, decent jobs, human development and support for small businesses.
The Ministry notes Fitch’s guidance that positive rating action could follow from sustained disinflation and reform implementation, further strengthening of external reserves, and stronger mobilisation of non-oil revenue, all of which remain central pillars of the administration’s economic strategy.
