By Wole Olujobi
The recent release of the lists of the National Assembly candidates for the 2027 general elections has thrown more light on the possible outcomes of the polls that will feature three leading political parties: APC, ADC and NDC.
Even as ADC threatens to set up its own rules in results collation in the general elections, arguing that it does not trust INEC’s election result collation protocols, in the last few weeks, reports of rigging plots allegedly masterminded by APC have become an anthem in the camps of the opposition NDC and ADC. The parties also raise other extraneous matters ìnstead of concentrating on the compelling campaign issues capable of attracting support for votes in an election in which APC has all it takes to succeed at the first ballot.
For instance, while APC has 31 of the 36 governors spread across Nigeria, both ADC and NDC have none. In the National Assembly, APC has 88 Senators and 269 Reps members; ADC has nine Senators and eight reps; and NDC has four Senators and 17 reps members.
While no structures and statistics exist to raise Atiku’s hopes for victory except for the alleged augury of his marabouts, according to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the method to secure victory is through the time-worn, hackneyed US assets forfeiture case; a non-existent criminal conviction in the US; and alleged certificate forgery charge that has no evidence.
For Obi, heaps of lies have dominated the contents of his manifesto, and, so far, mediocrity has ruled the roost of his campaign strategies, as the NDC candidate perches on petulant excesses, amusing Nigerians that his votes in the North will come from spending sallah holidays with the Sultan of Sokoto and Emir of Kano.
Obi’s victory strategy also includes jejunely insipid public shows woven around schemes to deceive Nigerians that he lives an austere lifestyle wearing one pair of shoes and one wristwatch to prove that he will be a prudent leader, even though elections are won on the strength of visible structures from the wards, local governments, constituencies, states to the Federal constituencies. And in a political jurisdiction that makes it mandatory to have a national spread in poll results for a successful election, inability or failure to achieve that national spread imperils whatever strength a contestant can muster in the bloc constituencies of influence. And this is where dangers await both Atiku and Obi in the cliffhanger January presidential polls.
Even as Atiku and Obi flex muscles, evidence of a voting demography on ground points to a stark reality that holds no hope for the two opposition candidates as they will be unable to match APC’s capacity to field candidates for National Assembly seats across the country in the January polls.
There are 360 House of Representatives seats and 109 Senate seats to be contested. According the final list of candidates as released by INEC last weekend, Obi’s
NDC could not field candidates in 10 senatorial districts and 33 candidates for House of Representatives seats.
The list also shows that Atiku’s ADC lacks candidates in one senatorial district and 13 federal constituencies for the House of Representatives election.
The 10 senatorial districts where NDC has no candidates are Bauchi South, Bauchi Central, Bauchi North, Benue Northeast, Ekiti South, Jigawa Northeast, Kaduna South, Katsina Central, Yobe East and Yobe North.
The 33 federal constituencies where the NDC has no candidate are spread across 16 states.
Obi/Kwakwanso’s party has no candidate in three constituencies in Bauchi, one constituency in Borno, two in Ekiti, one in Enugu, two constituencies in Jigawa, one in Kaduna, eight in Katsina, five in Kebbi, one constituency in both Kogi and Lagos, two in Osun, one in Oyo, two in Plateau, one constituency each in Sokoto, Taraba and Yobe. Yet, these are the constituencies with huge numbers of registered voters.
In Kaduna, crisis went deeper for Atiku’s ADC at the weekend, as Malam Nasir El-Rufai, Atiku’s ally in ADC, lost close aides and top associates to APC, vowing to support Governor Uba Sani in both governorship and presidential elections.
Based on the INEC figures, the NDC has candidates for 426 of the 469 seats in the National Assembly, meaning that Obi/Kwakwanso’s NDC has no candidates for 43 seats in the states, such as Kano, Katsina and Kebbi, among others, that usually have huge numbers of registered voters, meaning that Obi has no political mobilisation machines in those states to work for his success. Tinubu has intimidating mobilisation drive being coordinated by the governors and lawmakers in those states, even as APC is contesting in all 109 senatorial districts and 360 House of Representatives constituencies across the country.
The gaps that have dire consequences for both ADC and NDC are noticeable in Edo, Kano, Katsina, Borno, Kebbi, Anambra and Enugu states; all with high voting figures, and where Obi and Kwakwanso are supposed to show strength. But that is not the case, according to INEC’s list. For instance in Kano, Atiku’s ADC has no candidates in six constituencies. Yet, these are states with huge voting figures as released by INEC. Kano State, Kwakwanso’s political base, has a voting strength of 6,000,000; Edo has 2,501, 081 voters; Borno, 2,513,281; Katsina, 3,519,260; Kebbi, 2,032,041 l; Anambra, 2,656,437 voters; all governed by Tinubu’s APC except in Anambra State where Governor Charles Soludo of APGA has already teamed up with APC to prosecute the January 16 presidential election in favour of Tinubu while Enugu has 2,112,793 voters. Here, both ADC and NDC have no candidates in several constituencies.
In Kano alone, Atiku’s ADC has no candidates in six federal constituencies, while NDC also has no candidates in 46 constituencies across the country. The same thing in Delta South Senatorial District, Ogbia and Sagbama/Ekeremor constituencies in Bayelsa State, and Amuwo-Odofin in Lagos, where Atiku and Obi traditionally command huge support. Both ADC and NDC have no candidates in these constituencies.
Yet, these are the constituencies with huge numbers of registered voters. There are no such deficit gaps for APC in those states, instead more members of the opposition parties are defecting to the ruling APC everyday to strengthen its grassroots mobilisation capacity for a successful polls in the January general elections in which APC is contesting in all the available 109 senatorial districts and 360 House of Representatives constituencies. Both the presidential and National Assembly elections are holding same day.
Besides, after the earlier loss of the bye-elections in Kaduna and Anambra states by ADC and NDC, the recent loss of El-Rufai’s supporters to APC in Kaduna State, including last weekend APC’s success in the four of the five parliamentary bye-elections in the victories of Kallamu Usman MaiJama’a of Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency; Hon. Husseini Datti of Dawak in Kudu State Constituency, Kano State; Hon. Okolosi Ator of Udu State Constituency, Delta State; and Hon. Yakubu Ali of Disina State Constituency, Bauchi State, explains the trend of APC’s dominance, even as APC has re-opened membership registration drive across the country to strengthen its structures as essential element of grassroots mobilisation for victory while both Obi and Atiku abandon structures to chase shadows in alleged Tinubu’s sins that have no basis.
As Obi struggles to make the list in the book of John J. Mearsheimer, a top international chronicler of first class liars among world leaders, it is evident that it is too late for all the Annaniahs and Sapphiras of the Nigerian politics to deploy lies and blackmail to stop APC.
Atiku can also in his blackmail stunts extend his probe to the Mars to seek victory in the unseen world not backed by political realities and electoral statistics ahead of the presidential poll. All that will be too weak to square up with President Tinubu as he is set to take the trophy in the January general elections. The success of Tinubu’s APC in the recent bye-elections in Kaduna, Gombe, Delta, Kano and Bauchi is enough guide here.
As Tinubu’s APC looms large eclipsing both ADC and NDC in the arithmetic of January election contest, the science and statistics of voter’s registration showing superior strength for APC has clearly demonstrated Tinubu’s immunity against the opposition’s blackmail stunts, as campaigns hot up across the nation, clearing the way for where the pendulum swings in the 2026 general elections, with the scale tilting in favour of Tinubu’s APC.
*Olujobi, a journalist, writes from Ado-Ekiti
