EBC Financial Group notes that domestic investors made up over 95% of Nigerian stock trading in August. This is a big shift from 2011, when foreign investors made up about two-thirds of trading, and the next figures may show whether foreign investors are returning
Foreign investors made up 4.89% of share trading on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in August 2026, the lowest monthly share this year and the last full month before index provider FTSE Russell (FTSE) moved Nigeria into its Frontier market category on 21 September 2026, according to the NGX Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report for August 2026. EBC Financial Group (EBC) noted in its July 2026 analysis that foreign investors might not follow Nigeria’s stock rally, and the latest data supports that view, because foreign money has gone mainly into government debt. Two obstacles EBC named in July, a short payment deadline and Nigeria’s absence from FTSE indexes, have since eased, so the NGX reports for September and October may show whether foreign investors are returning.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Foreign investors made up about two-thirds of trading in 2011 and about 22% in 2025, so a share below 5% is a big change in who drives the market. When almost all trading is local, prices depend mainly on how much cash local investors have, so it helps to look at who is buying, not only at how far prices have moved.”
Between January and August 2026, foreign investors sold shares worth NGN 814.99 billion and bought shares worth NGN 539.83 billion, so they sold about NGN 275 billion more than they bought. This does not show how much money left Nigeria, because NGX records only the naira value of trades, not what investors do with the naira afterwards. The bigger reason for the falling foreign share is that domestic investors traded NGN 11.89 trillion, more than double the NGN 5.46 trillion in the same months of 2025, while foreign investors traded about 7% less than a year earlier. This halved the foreign share to 10.23% from 21.01%.
Foreign Investors were Once the Main Force
Foreign investors made up 66.8% of trading in 2011 and more than half in every year from 2011 to 2015, calculated from NGX annual figures. They were still about 22% in 2025.
Currency steadiness may explain these swings. Commentary at the time linked 2013 inflows to a steady naira and extra global money, a stronger naira raises foreign investors’ returns in dollars, as EBC noted in July, and in November 2014 Pabina Yinkere of Vetiva Capital Management said foreign investors were leaving to avoid being stuck when the naira was devalued.
Foreign money has found a better home in government debt: for every USD100 of foreign money placed in shares or debt in the first quarter, about USD99 went into debt, such as Treasury bills and bonds, and about USD 1 into shares, calculated from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Capital Importation Report. Arnold Dublin-Green of BGL Asset Management said foreign investors favoured short-term debt for its relatively risk-free yields, which helps explain why foreign investors are a small part of share trading. The Central Bank of Nigeria put net foreign portfolio inflows at USD6.31 billion for January to August 2026, the same months foreign investors sold more shares than they bought.
The Two Obstacles Raised in July Have Eased
Two obstacles were named in EBC’s July analysis: funds that copy an index might wait for Nigeria’s inclusion, and the one-business-day payment rule (T+1) might push foreign investors to hold naira in advance or place smaller orders. FTSE moved Nigeria into its Frontier market category, for smaller markets, after feedback to FTSE showed no material settlement, operational or funding problems since T+1 began. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) circular of 12 August 2026 states that foreign investors are not required to put cash in place before trading, known as prefunding, which answers concerns about T+1.
“Those two obstacles no longer look like reasons to stay out of Nigerian shares, so demand is now the open question,” Precious added. “A higher foreign share in the next reports would suggest those obstacles were holding investors back.
August gives a fixed point for comparison, as the last full month before Nigeria entered the FTSE Frontier indexes. A lasting rise in the foreign share may suggest foreign investors are returning to shares, while a low share may suggest they still prefer government debt. Although one month may not settle the question, a change lasting several months would be harder to dismiss
